The 2017 presidential election will be held on April 23 and May 7, 2017.
This article is a bias, made of prognosis, and takes into account: the current situation, polls, articles in the press, opinion surveys. It is evolving and updated according to new events.
Your opinions are expected in the comments of this article.
Ranking explanations: why, we can already predict who will win the 2017 presidential elections.
Politics is not about a chance. It is above all numbers, statistics, a well-honed system. It is enough to analyze the workings of this system, the articulations of politics, to determine who can reach the post of president.
It is easier to determine who will be president of France in 2017 than to know all the candidates who will run. To do this, we must start at the top.
Given the current balance of power in France, the parties likely to advance to the second round of the presidential election in France are:
- The National Front candidate against a Les Républicains candidate
- The National Front candidate against a Socialist Party candidate
- The National Front candidate against a non-party candidate
For the National Front, the candidate is already known: it will be Marine Le Pen.
For the Republican Party, the candidate is the winner of the primaries: François Fillon.
For the Socialist Party, the candidate is the winner of the primaries: Benoît Hamon. But he must count on his left Mélenchon, and on his right Macron.
Ranking: who will win the 2017 presidential elections in France
The chances of winning are indicated by the following scale:
Surely the president of France in 2017
May do well in the 1st round of the 2017 French presidential election
No chance to win
- François Fillon (Les Républicains)
- Emmanuel Macron
- Benoît Hamon (Socialist Party)
- Marine Le Pen (National Front)
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (non-party candidate)
- François Bayrou (MoDem)
- Rama Yade
- Jacques Cheminade (Solidarity and Progress party)
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout la France)
- Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière)
- Philippe Poutou (New Anti-Capitalist Party)
→ The political orientations of the newspapers
→ News summaries