The 2017 presidential election will be held on April 23 and May 7, 2017.
This article is a bias, made of prognosis, and takes into account: the current situation, polls, articles in the press, opinion surveys. It is evolving and updated according to new events.
Your opinions are expected in the comments of this article.
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Ranking explanations: why, we can already predict who will win the 2017 presidential elections.
Politics is not about a chance. It is above all numbers, statistics, a well-honed system. It is enough to analyze the workings of this system, the articulations of politics, to determine who can reach the post of president.
It is easier to determine who will be president of France in 2017 than to know all the candidates who will run. To do this, we must start at the top.
Given the current balance of power in France, the parties likely to advance to the second round of the presidential election in France are:
- The National Front candidate against a Les Républicains candidate
- The National Front candidate against a Socialist Party candidate
- The National Front candidate against a non-party candidate
For the National Front, the candidate is already known: it will be Marine Le Pen.
For the Republican Party, the candidate is the winner of the primaries: François Fillon.
For the Socialist Party, the candidate is the winner of the primaries: Benoît Hamon. But he must count on his left Mélenchon, and on his right Macron.
Ranking: who will win the 2017 presidential elections in France
The chances of winning are indicated by the following scale:
Surely the president of France in 2017
May do well in the 1st round of the 2017 French presidential election
No chance to win
- François Fillon (Les Républicains)
- Emmanuel Macron
- Benoît Hamon (Socialist Party)
- Marine Le Pen (National Front)
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (non-party candidate)
- François Bayrou (MoDem)
- Rama Yade
- Jacques Cheminade (Solidarity and Progress party)
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout la France)
- Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière)
- Philippe Poutou (New Anti-Capitalist Party)
→ The political orientations of the newspapers
→ News summaries
Yes it has been changed, that’s what I was thinking too. Still big anything
Um, has this article been edited since it was written? Because whoever predicted this when at that time we did not yet know all the candidates I am hallucinating!
Fillon Macron race for liberalism and power, not Europe
shit, only Marine will win or civil war will be right against socialist and far left nazis.
What about your predictions with Penelope Gate? Are you maintaining or changing?
Bjr is why not jlc Mélenchon for me he is the only one who is serious and asks who thinks
And Ségolène ROYAL is not a fictitious job She is still the wife of HOLLANDE and she receives a minister’s salary on our backs and she does not do much from my point of view That is socialism!
And what about this very popular Emmanuel Macron who every day seduces more and more French people and attracts voters from all parties?
November 21, 2016 Everything written here is overtaken by Fillon’s (big) victory in the first round of the right-wing primary.
It seems likely to me that the primary of the Republicans will give Juppé the winner but with a very close result against a Sarkozy who can, in my opinion, declare himself a candidate because the party risks splitting. Remember 1995? Chirac-Balladur. We could find this case. Juppé will owe his victory to a party of the left electorate which will certainly mobilize because he fears a Sarkozy-Le Pen second round. Therefore, the result may not be accepted by the Sarkozysts if it is particularly tight.
@Léa: Hello Léa, indeed we considered this possibility, but we ruled it out. It is indeed impossible to imagine that the two candidates currently in the lead reject the results of the primary, or at least go beyond and present themselves all the same. If Sarkozy or Juppé lose the Les Républicains primary, they will not attempt the presidential adventure alone, without the support of the party. Good day, The Academics in Politics team
you don’t envisage the possibility that Sarkozy will run even if he loses the primary at the same time as Juppé. Why rule out this possibility knowing that it is very likely that it will happen